Political Risk Analysis - Status Quo Likely To Hold In The Face Of Latest Corruption Charges - NOV 2017


BMI View: Brazil ' s political status quo is likely to remain intact in the next few months, in spite of the latest corruption charges levelled by departing Public Prosector Rodrigo Janot. Nevertheless, they will undermine reform efforts and bolster public anger towards Brazil ' s political establishment.

The latest corruption charges levelled by Public Prosecutor Rodrigo Janot against a wide swath of public officials are unlikely to alter Brazil's political status quo in the next few months, with President Michel Temer set to remain in power ( see ' Odds Shift In Temer ' s Favour ' , June 6). However, they will further erode Temer's political capital, likely decreasing the potential for substantive reforms to be passed this year. In addition, the charges will increase public ire towards Brazil's political class ahead of a general election in October 2018, creating opportunities for anti-establishment candidates to come to the fore ( see ' 2018 Election Initial Thoughts: Corruption Critical To Outlook ' , August 22).

Temer Under Fire

How Much Further To Fall?
Brazil - Approval Ratings For Government Of President Michel Temer, %
Source: Datafolha, BMI

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