Political Risk Analysis - Quick View: Temer Cleared, Pension Reform Back On Docket - OCT 2017


The Latest: On August 2, the Brazilian Chamber of Deputies dismissed corruption charges against President Michel Temer. Temer was accused of accepting and directing bribes during his presidency from JBS. For a case to proceed, a two-thirds majority of 342 votes in favour of accepting the charges was required, but a majority of 263 voted against the charges. 227 lawmakers voted to accept the charges.

Implications: The legislature's decision was in line with our expectations and supports our view that Temer holds an 80% chance of finishing his term. Further, the vote demonstrates that Temer continues to retain support of a majority of Congress. Although Temer is among the region's least popular leaders, with approval ratings in the single digits, he benefits from public wariness over nearly two years of political and economic turmoil, a lack of viable candidates to replace him and lawmakers' desire to halt the flow of damaging corruption allegations.

What's Next: While Brazil's lead public prosecutor, Rodrigo Janot, could file additional charges against Temer, the Brazilian legislature will most likely return to its normal course of business. The legislature is unlikely to revisit the issue, barring the revelation of significant new evidence of wrongdoing by Temer while in office.

Majority Tamps Down Charges
Brazil - Chamber Of Deputies: Vote To Accept Charges Against Temer, #
Source: Camara dos Deputados, BMI

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