Political Risk Analysis - Opposition To Peace Process To Rise On New Corruption Allegations - DEC 2017

BMI View: Recent events confirm our view that a peace deal between the Colombian government and the F ARC is unlikely to be fully implemented . A likely opposition victory in the 2018 legislative elections will lead to changes in some of the peace deal ' s terms and continued delays in its implementation.

While a return to widespread, open conflict between the government and the Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC) is highly unlikely, recent events confirm our expectations that the peace deal is unlikely to be fully implemented in its current form ( see ' Conflict To End, But Peace Implementation Incomplete', February 28). Allegations of corruption in the judiciary are likely to undermine confidence in the transitional justice system on both sides of the political divide. Moreover, the peace deal's strength is being tested by the government's killing of a well-known FARC dissident who had refused to surrender at the same time that key FARC officials are putting pressure on the government to fulfil its obligations under the peace deal. These factors are likely to bolster the electoral prospects of the peace deal's critics, largely from the right-wing Centro Democratico (CD), heading into presidential and legislative elections in 2018 ( see ' Corruption Concerns To Jeopardise Coalition Ahead Of 2018 Elections ' , March 9).

Corruption Allegations Will Undermine Faith In Process

Corruption Weighing On President's Popularity
Colombia - President Santos Approval Rating, %
Source: Colombia Reports, BMI

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