Political Risk Analysis - L?pez Obrador Consolidating Position On Security And Trump - JUNE 2017

BMI View: Leftist, populist presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is leveraging latest developments to strengthen his position a head of the July 2018 election. As his election would mark a significant break with the status quo, we begin to assess his emerging policy platform .

Movimiento Regeneracion Nacional (Morena) presidential candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is capitalising on latest developments to shape the electoral debate on issues such as crime and US-Mexico relations. This will strengthen his prospects in the July 2018 presidential election, particularly as there are no other declared candidates from major political parties. The June 4 gubernatorial election in the state of Mexico (Edomex) will be the next major touch point for Morena and Lopez Obrador, providing a gauge of sentiment in a traditional stronghold of the ruling Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI). As a Lopez Obrador victory would mark a major break from the political status quo in Mexico, we begin to assess what this could mean for the country's policy trajectory.

Increasing Violence A Major Challenge For PRI And PAN

Morena Holding Its Own In Centre And Southeast
Mexico - Voting Preference For President In 2018 Election, %
Note: February 3-6 poll. Source: Consulta Mitofsky, BMI

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