Political Risk Analysis - June Elections: PRI Remains Political Force, But Significant Frustration With Politics As Usual - AUG 2017


BMI View: W ith the June 4 gubernatorial elections showing that the ruling PRI remains a political force, but at the same time, significant frustration with the political status quo exists , we maintain that the 2018 general election will be closely fought . The success of electoral elections the early June vote suggest this is also an emerging trend to watch.

We maintain our view that Mexico's 2018 election is likely to be closely contested. Gubernatorial elections in Estado de Mexico (Edomex), Nayarit and Coahuila on June 4 suggest that the ruling Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) remains a viable political force, despite poor approval ratings for President Enrique Pena Nieto, rising violence and a spate of corruption scandals in recent years. Still, significant opportunity for anti-establishment and populist candidates exists in light of dissatisfaction with the political status quo, as the left-wing Movimiento de Regeneracion Nacional (Morena) party only narrowly missed gaining its first governorship in Edomex, a long-time PRI stronghold. Coalitions are likely to be a significant factor in 2018 and could be one to tip the balance in favour of smaller parties, in both the legislative and presidential elections. Finally though, we highlight notable risks to Morena and its presidential candidate and frontrunner, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, stemming from an unfolding corruption scandal. With Lopez Obrador having positioned himself as tough on corruption, evidence of campaign financing violations could reduce his anti-establishment appeal.

PRI Down But Not Out

Thin Margin For PRI Suggests Considerable Voter Frustration
Mexico - Preliminary Results Of June 4 Edomex Gubernatorial Election, %
Source: Local press, INE, BMI

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