Political Risk Analysis - Crib Sheet: Elections & FARC Peace Process To Make 2018 A Challenging Year - MAR 2018

Colombia is set for another politically challenging year in 2018. Legislative and presidential elections in March and May, respectively, will heighten political tensions. The ongoing FARC peace process will remain a point of contention and uncertainty, particularly as violence rises in formerly FARC-controlled areas. The loss of fast-track authority for peace deal provisions will slow the legislative process considerably and increase the likelihood that many provisions have not been passed or funded by the time the government of President Juan Manuel Santos leaves power. A high likelihood that legislative elections will not produce a decisive victory for one party or coalition means that uncertainty over the peace process will persist throughout 2018.

Latest Developments

  • Presidential Field Taking Shape: Colombia's presidential field is solidifying, as most major parties and social movements have declared their presidential candidates. President Juan Manuel Santos is constitutionally barred from running again and, at present, his Partido de la U has decided not to run a presidential candidate in 2018.

Fajardo Hanging Onto The Lead For Now
Colombia - Select Presidential Candidates, %
Source: Invamer/Semana, BMI

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