Political Risk Analysis - 2018 Election Initial Thoughts: Corruption Critical To Outlook - OCT 2017

Brazil's next general election, scheduled for October 2018, will undoubtedly be its most consequential since 2002, when Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva ushered in an era of leftist governance. Following three years of economic and political crisis driven by the end of the commodity boom and a sweeping set of corruption investigations, the election will mark a turning point in Brazil's policy direction and, by extension, its long-term growth outlook. President Michel Temer, who assumed office following the impeachment of Lula's successor Dilma Rousseff, has reoriented the government toward a broad agenda of liberalising reforms, and this election will determine whether those efforts continue or are reversed.

At this early stage, we believe it is too early to make a call on who will win the election, or what its outcomes will be. Rather, we are approaching the upcoming campaign with several baseline assumptions and a list of candidates that we are carefully watching. Each of these is summarised below and will be expanded upon over the coming months. Additionally, we will be exploring key risk scenarios in separate article.

Baseline Assumptions:

  • Corruption Scandals Feed Anti-Establishment Mood
    Brazil - Public Approval Of Government, %
    Source: CNI, Ibope, BMI

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