We expect the Banco de México's (Banxico) to hold its policy rate at 3.00% through H115, following a surprise 50 basis points (bps) rate cut on June 6. We believe that stronger economic activity growth and above-target inflation will drive rate hikes in H215, and we forecast Banxico's policy rate to end 2015 at 3.50%.
The average unemployment rate in all of Latin America's largest economies except Mexico and Colombia will either remain the same or rise in 2014 as weaker economic activity results in a moderate deterioration in the labour market.
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