Anti-establishment sentiment amid rising security and corruption concerns will bolster support for left-leaning populist Andr?s Manuel L?pez Obrador (AMLO) in Mexico's 2018 presidential election. While negative partisanship will likely cap his support, a large and fractured field could enable an AMLO victory.
Mexico's current account will narrow in 2017 on the back of a surge in manufactured good exports and remittance growth. Although Mexico remains exposed to risks from a shift in US trade policy, these risks will likely abate, leaving external accounts broadly stable over the coming years.
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