Macroeconomic Forecasts - Nicaragua - NOV 2017


Macroeconomic Forecasts

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Nicaragua 2013-2019)
Indicator 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 10.9 11.8 12.7 13.4 14.0 14.7 15.4
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 4.5 4.6 4.9 4.0 3.6 3.7 3.7
GDP per capita, USD 1,829 1,960 2,087 2,185 2,257 2,338 2,418
Industrial production, % y-o-y, ave -0.4 5.2 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.5
Population, mn 5.95 6.01 6.08 6.15 6.22 6.28 6.35
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 5.7 6.5 3.1 3.1 4.8 5.4 4.4
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 7.1 6.0 4.0 3.5 4.0 5.1 4.9
Exchange rate NIO/USD, ave 24.72 25.96 27.25 28.55 29.98 31.48 33.05
Exchange rate NIO/USD, eop 25.33 26.60 27.93 29.32 30.79 32.33 33.94
Budget balance, NIObn -3.1 -4.6 -5.4 -4.2 -6.4 -6.6 -5.5
Budget balance, % of GDP -1.1 -1.5 -1.6 -1.1 -1.5 -1.4 -1.1
Goods and services exports, USDbn 4.7 5.0 4.8 5.2 5.6 6.0 6.4
Goods and services imports, USDbn 6.9 7.1 7.0 7.5 8.1 8.6 9.0
Current account balance, USDbn -1.2 -0.9 -1.0 -1.1 -1.1 -1.1 -1.2
Current account balance, % of GDP -10.8 -7.7 -8.2 -8.4 -8.0 -7.7 -7.6
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.4
Import cover, months 3.5 3.9 4.3 3.9 3.3 3.2 3.2
Total external debt stock, USDbn 9.8 10.2 10.5 11.9 13.4 15.0 16.8
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 89.9 86.6 82.6 88.3 95.2 102.1 109.5