Macroeconomic Forecasts - Mexico - MAY 2018


Macroeconomic Forecasts (Mexico 2014-2020)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI
Population, mn 124.22 125.89 127.54 129.16 130.76 132.33 133.87
Nominal GDP, USDbn 1,296.7 1,149.3 1,044.8 1,143.4 1,224.5 1,350.1 1,479.2
GDP per capita, USD 10,438 9,129 8,191 8,852 9,364 10,202 11,049
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.0 2.1 2.2 3.0
Industrial production, % y-o-y, ave 2.7 1.0 0.0 0.6 0.9 1.9 2.2
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 4.0 2.7 2.8 6.0 4.5 3.9 4.0
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 4.1 2.1 3.4 6.8 3.8 3.9 4.0
Central bank policy rate, % eop 3.00 3.25 5.75 7.25 7.50 5.00 5.50
Exchange rate MXN/USD, ave 13.31 15.87 18.69 18.92 18.90 18.40 18.17
Exchange rate MXN/USD, eop 14.75 17.21 20.73 19.50 18.40 18.00 18.33
Budget balance, MXNbn -543.1 -637.7 -503.8 -120.2 -65.7 -70.2 -134.8
Budget balance, % of GDP -3.1 -3.5 -2.6 -0.6 -0.3 -0.3 -0.5
Goods and services exports, USDbn 404.1 403.9 398.8 437.2 454.7 477.2 507.0
Goods and services imports, USDbn 416.3 427.2 419.6 451.8 469.6 496.3 526.5
Current account balance, USDbn -30.8 -28.2 -22.4 -15.7 -17.5 -21.9 -22.4
Current account balance, % of GDP -2.4 -2.5 -2.1 -1.4 -1.4 -1.6 -1.5
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 193.2 176.7 176.5 178.3 185.4 191.0 196.7
Import cover, months 6.0 5.4 5.5 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.8
Total external debt stock, USDbn 442.3 426.4 422.7 439.8 457.3 477.1 499.1
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 34.1 37.1 40.5 38.5 37.3 35.3 33.7
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 2,788.6 2,592.0 2,425.8 2,223.3 2,155.9 2,181.3 2,227.8
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d 1,124.5 919.6 808.6 675.7 633.3 639.7 646.7
Dry natural gas production, bcm 45.1 44.4 40.9 34.3 33.1 32.7 33.1
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 59.2 56.2 56.2 47.7 48.8 50.3 52.0