Macroeconomic Forecasts - Mexico - MAY 2017


Macro Forecast Table

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Mexico 2013-2019)
Indicator 2013 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
National Sources/BMI
Population, mn 123.7 125.4 127.0 128.6 130.2 131.8 133.3
Nominal GDP, USDbn 1,262.7 1,296.7 1,149.3 1,041.0 1,030.2 1,164.7 1,324.8
GDP per capita, USD 10,321 10,474 9,177 8,220 8,048 9,005 10,140
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 1.4 2.3 2.6 2.3 1.8 2.6 2.7
Industrial production, % y-o-y, ave -0.5 2.7 1.0 0.4 0.6 1.5 1.9
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 3.8 4.0 2.7 2.8 4.6 3.8 3.9
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 4.0 4.1 2.1 3.4 4.2 3.8 3.9
Central bank policy rate, % eop 3.50 3.00 3.25 5.75 6.75 5.50 5.00
Exchange rate MXN/USD, ave 12.76 13.31 15.87 18.69 20.10 19.00 18.00
Exchange rate MXN/USD, eop 13.04 14.75 17.21 20.73 19.50 18.00 17.50
Budget balance, MXNbn -374.2 -543.1 -637.7 -595.7 -575.6 -552.5 -553.1
Budget balance, % of GDP -2.3 -3.1 -3.5 -3.1 -2.8 -2.5 -2.3
Goods and services exports, USDbn 400.2 418.0 403.5 385.9 404.5 426.7 451.8
Goods and services imports, USDbn 412.4 433.5 427.3 410.7 430.2 452.8 478.3
Current account balance, USDbn -31.0 -26.2 -32.7 -29.6 -32.4 -33.2 -33.9
Current account balance, % of GDP -2.5 -2.0 -2.8 -2.8 -3.1 -2.8 -2.6
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 176.5 193.2 176.7 176.5 178.3 185.4 191.0
Import cover, months 5.6 5.8 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.2
Total external debt stock, USDbn 406.2 441.6 426.3 464.0 503.3 550.9 600.6
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 32.2 34.1 37.1 44.6 48.9 47.3 45.3
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 2,882.2 2,788.6 2,591.5 2,470.1 2,297.7 2,350.2 2,434.2
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d 824.4 814.6 598.8 448.3 240.3 246.1 278.1
Dry natural gas production, bcm 46.0 45.8 42.4 38.6 37.1 37.7 38.8
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 59.3 59.2 60.4 62.2 65.3 67.9 70.3