Macroeconomic Forecasts - Jamaica - NOV 2017


Macroeconomic Forecasts (Jamaica 2013-2019)
Indicator 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 14.3 13.9 14.2 14.0 14.2 14.8 15.3
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.4 1.7 2.4 2.2
GDP per capita, USD 5,026 4,857 4,939 4,875 4,908 5,101 5,273
Population, mn 2.85 2.86 2.87 2.88 2.89 2.90 2.91
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 9.7 6.2 3.7 1.7 4.7 6.0 6.5
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 9.4 8.3 3.7 2.4 4.3 5.3 6.3
Central bank policy rate, % eop 5.75 5.75 5.25 5.00 3.50 3.00 3.00
Exchange rate JMD/USD, ave 99.82 110.90 116.90 125.18 130.78 135.37 141.47
Exchange rate JMD/USD, eop 106.00 114.33 119.98 128.85 132.72 138.02 144.93
Budget balance, JMDbn -54.6 1.7 -7.8 -4.9 1.8 9.3 15.9
Budget balance, % of GDP -3.8 0.1 -0.5 -0.3 0.1 0.5 0.7
Goods and services exports, USDbn 2.0 2.1 3.2 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.9
Goods and services imports, USDbn 3.8 3.8 5.0 6.3 6.6 6.9 7.2
Current account balance, USDbn -1.4 -1.1 -0.4 -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4
Current account balance, % of GDP -9.5 -8.0 -2.8 -0.9 -1.8 -2.3 -2.7
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 1.0 2.0 2.4 2.7 4.5 4.7 5.0
Import cover, months 3.2 4.6 5.9 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.7
Total external debt stock, USDbn 13.0 14.1 14.1 14.2 15.0 15.3 15.6
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 90.3 101.3 99.5 101.2 105.8 103.3 101.5
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d -50.9 -51.8 -52.9 -54.1 -55.3 -56.2 -57.4
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0