Macroeconomic Forecasts - Jamaica - MAY 2018


Macroeconomic Forecasts (Jamaica 2014-2020)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 13.9 14.2 14.0 14.1 15.3 16.1 17.0
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 0.7 0.8 1.4 0.6 1.4 1.9 2.1
GDP per capita, USD 4,857 4,939 4,876 4,869 5,286 5,539 5,829
Population, mn 2.86 2.87 2.88 2.89 2.90 2.91 2.91
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 6.2 3.7 1.7 4.7 6.0 6.5 7.5
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 8.3 3.7 2.4 4.3 5.3 6.3 7.0
Central bank policy rate, % eop 5.75 5.25 5.00 3.50 3.00 3.00 3.00
Exchange rate JMD/USD, ave 110.90 116.90 125.16 128.14 126.44 130.24 134.81
Exchange rate JMD/USD, eop 114.33 119.98 128.85 124.58 128.31 132.16 137.45
Budget balance, JMDbn 1.7 -7.8 -4.9 1.8 9.3 15.9 17.6
Budget balance, % of GDP 0.1 -0.5 -0.3 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.8
Goods and services exports, USDbn 2.9 3.6 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.3 5.5
Goods and services imports, USDbn 6.4 6.1 6.3 7.1 7.6 7.9 8.2
Current account balance, USDbn -1.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7
Current account balance, % of GDP -8.0 -2.8 -1.2 -3.1 -3.9 -4.2 -4.1
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 2.0 2.4 2.7 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.7
Import cover, months 4.6 5.9 5.6 5.8 5.0 5.4 5.5
Total external debt stock, USDbn 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.4 14.3 14.2 14.1
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 101.3 99.5 100.0 102.1 93.0 88.1 83.0
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d -51.3 -52.3 -53.5 -54.5 -55.4 -56.6 -58.0
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7