Macroeconomic Forecasts - Guatemala - MAY 2018


Macroeconomic Forecasts (Guatemala 2014-2020)
Indicator 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast. Source: National Sources, BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 58.7 63.8 68.7 76.5 84.3 91.1 99.0
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 4.2 4.1 3.1 2.8 3.1 3.5 3.6
GDP per capita, USD 3,686 3,923 4,145 4,521 4,889 5,183 5,528
Population, mn 15.92 16.25 16.58 16.91 17.25 17.58 17.91
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 2.9 3.1 4.2 5.7 5.1 5.3 5.5
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 3.4 2.4 4.4 4.4 5.4 5.2 5.4
Central bank policy rate, % eop 4.00 3.00 3.00 2.75 4.00 4.50 5.00
Exchange rate GTQ/USD, ave 7.73 7.66 7.60 7.35 7.25 7.24 7.29
Exchange rate GTQ/USD, eop 7.60 7.63 7.52 7.34 7.20 7.28 7.30
Budget balance, GTQbn -8.6 -7.0 -5.7 -9.4 -12.4 -12.9 -12.5
Budget balance, % of GDP -1.9 -1.4 -1.1 -1.7 -2.0 -2.0 -1.7
Goods and services exports, USDbn 13.8 13.6 13.4 13.9 14.5 15.2 15.9
Goods and services imports, USDbn 19.0 18.3 17.9 18.8 19.9 21.2 22.4
Current account balance, USDbn -1.2 -0.1 1.0 1.5 1.6 1.5 1.6
Current account balance, % of GDP -2.1 -0.2 1.5 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.7
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 7.3 7.8 9.2 11.7 13.3 14.4 15.3
Import cover, months 5.2 5.7 7.0 8.3 9.0 9.1 9.1
Total external debt stock, USDbn 19.3 20.2 21.2 21.1 21.0 19.9 18.9
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 32.9 31.7 30.9 27.6 24.9 21.9 19.0
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d -55.7 -56.4 -57.1 -57.8 -58.5 -59.2 -60.0
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0