Macroeconomic Forecasts - Guatemala - AUG 2017


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Macroeconomic Forecasts (Guatemala 2013-2019)
Indicator 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast; Source: National Sources, BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 53.8 58.7 63.8 68.8 77.7 85.2 83.4
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 3.7 4.2 4.1 3.1 4.0 3.1 3.4
GDP per capita, USD 3,430 3,665 3,901 4,124 4,570 4,915 4,718
Population, mn 15.6 15.9 16.3 16.6 16.9 17.2 17.6
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 4.4 2.9 3.1 4.2 4.8 3.0 3.5
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 4.3 3.4 2.4 4.4 4.5 3.9 3.3
Central bank policy rate, % eop 5.00 4.00 3.00 3.00 3.50 4.50 5.50
Exchange rate GTQ/USD, ave 7.86 7.73 7.66 7.60 7.38 7.25 7.90
Exchange rate GTQ/USD, eop 7.84 7.60 7.63 7.52 7.27 7.20 7.80
Budget balance, GTQbn -9.0 -8.6 -7.0 -1.6 -1.2 -0.8 -0.1
Budget balance, % of GDP -2.1 -1.9 -1.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 0.0
Goods and services exports, USDbn 12.7 13.8 13.6 13.3 13.8 14.3 14.9
Goods and services imports, USDbn 17.9 19.0 18.3 17.9 18.9 20.0 21.2
Current account balance, USDbn -1.4 -1.2 -0.1 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.5
Current account balance, % of GDP -2.5 -2.1 -0.2 1.3 1.0 0.7 0.6
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 7.3 7.3 7.8 8.5 9.0 9.5 10.3
Import cover, months 5.3 5.2 5.7 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.6
Total external debt stock, USDbn 17.3 19.3 20.2 20.9 21.9 23.1 24.6
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 32.1 32.9 31.6 30.4 28.2 27.1 29.5
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d -55.0 -55.7 -56.4 -57.1 -57.8 -58.5 -59.2
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0