Macroeconomic Forecasts - Costa Rica - JUNE 2017


Macroeconomic forecasts

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Costa Rica 2013-2019)
Indicator 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast; Source: National Sources, BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 49.2 49.5 52.5 53.4 55.8 58.9 62.5
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 3.4 3.5 2.8 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9
GDP per capita, USD 10,097 10,027 10,492 10,540 10,891 11,359 11,927
Population, mn 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 3.7 5.1 -0.8 0.8 2.2 4.0 4.0
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 5.2 4.5 0.8 0.0 1.8 3.5 4.0
Central bank policy rate, % eop 3.75 5.25 2.25 1.25 3.00 4.50 5.50
Exchange rate CRC/USD, ave 500.16 538.73 535.43 546.96 555.00 564.20 574.08
Exchange rate CRC/USD, eop 501.40 539.42 537.30 553.17 560.00 568.40 579.77
Budget balance, CRCbn -1,322.1 -1,217.1 -1,453.6 -1,397.5 -1,635.0 -1,832.4 -1,887.4
Budget balance, % of GDP -5.4 -4.6 -5.2 -4.8 -5.3 -5.5 -5.3
Goods and services exports, USDbn 15.8 16.6 16.7 18.2 18.9 19.8 20.7
Goods and services imports, USDbn 16.8 17.4 17.3 18.4 19.2 20.1 21.0
Current account balance, USDbn 0.1 0.5 -2.5 -2.1 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3
Current account balance, % of GDP 0.2 1.0 -4.7 -3.8 -4.2 -4.0 -3.7
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 7.3 7.2 7.8 8.2 8.6 9.1 9.5
Import cover, months 6.1 5.9 6.5 6.4 6.5 6.6 6.7
Total external debt stock, USDbn 17.1 19.6 23.7 26.2 28.9 31.5 34.3
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 34.8 39.7 45.1 49.1 51.8 53.6 54.9