Macroeconomic Forecasts - Chile - MAY 2017


Macroeconomic Forecasts

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Chile 2013-2019)
Indicator 2013 2014 2015e 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
f = BMI forecast; Source: Chilean National Statistics Agencies, BMI
Population, mn 17.6 17.8 17.9 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.7
Nominal GDP, USDbn 277.0 258.5 240.1 246.1 252.9 270.2 289.4
GDP per capita, USD 15,758 14,555 13,378 13,575 13,809 14,609 15,503
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 4.0 1.9 2.1 1.7 2.0 2.6 2.8
Industrial production, % y-o-y, ave 3.4 0.4 -0.3 2.0 2.8 4.3 4.8
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave -7.4 4.4 4.4 3.8 2.9 3.3 3.6
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop -6.5 4.6 4.4 2.7 3.0 3.5 3.7
Central bank policy rate, % eop 4.50 3.00 3.25 3.50 3.00 3.50 4.00
Exchange rate CLP/USD, ave 495.47 570.77 654.40 676.53 685.00 676.00 670.00
Exchange rate CLP/USD, eop 525.45 606.45 708.60 670.40 680.00 665.00 660.00
Budget balance, CLPbn -647.5 -2,214.2 -3,310.3 -4,686.5 -4,832.2 -4,311.9 -3,644.4
Budget balance, % of GDP -0.5 -1.5 -2.1 -2.8 -2.8 -2.4 -1.9
Goods and services exports, USDbn 88.7 85.9 72.0 69.6 70.9 74.2 77.2
Goods and services imports, USDbn 90.8 83.4 72.3 68.6 69.2 71.8 75.8
Current account balance, USDbn -10.3 -3.3 -4.8 -3.2 -2.6 -2.1 -3.4
Current account balance, % of GDP -3.7 -1.3 -2.0 -1.3 -1.0 -0.8 -1.2
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 41.1 40.4 38.6 40.5 46.0 48.0 50.0
Import cover, months 6.6 7.1 7.9 8.8 9.9 10.0 9.9
Total external debt stock, USDbn 99.3 106.5 103.2 114.3 126.2 140.3 160.3
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 35.9 41.2 43.0 46.4 49.9 51.9 55.4
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 10.6 8.8 7.9 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d -322.5 -306.5 -325.8 -313.3 -322.9 -332.9 -344.9
Dry natural gas production, bcm 0.9 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.4