Macroeconomic Forecasts - Brazil - MAY 2018


Macroeconomic Forecasts (Brazil 2014-2020)
Indicator 2014 2015 2016e 2017e 2018f 2019f 2020f
National Sources/BMI
Population, mn 204.21 205.96 207.65 209.29 210.87 212.39 213.86
Nominal GDP, USDbn 2,454.9 1,799.9 1,794.8 2,055.0 2,074.8 2,091.4 2,187.8
GDP per capita, USD 12,021 8,738 8,643 9,819 9,839 9,846 10,229
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 0.5 -3.5 -3.5 1.0 2.5 2.6 2.5
Industrial production, % y-o-y, ave -2.9 -8.2 -6.4 2.4 2.8 3.0 3.1
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 6.3 9.0 8.8 3.5 3.5 4.7 5.0
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 6.4 10.7 6.3 2.9 3.7 5.1 4.9
Central bank policy rate, % eop 11.75 14.25 13.75 7.00 6.75 7.75 8.00
Exchange rate BRL/USD, ave 2.35 3.33 3.49 3.19 3.36 3.57 3.68
Exchange rate BRL/USD, eop 2.66 3.96 3.26 3.31 3.53 3.62 3.73
Budget balance, BRLbn -343.9 -613.0 -562.8 -511.4 -526.5 -521.8 -478.7
Budget balance, % of GDP -6.0 -10.2 -9.0 -7.8 -7.6 -7.0 -6.0
Goods and services exports, USDbn 264.1 223.9 217.8 251.7 273.3 278.8 284.3
Goods and services imports, USDbn 318.8 243.1 203.2 221.5 248.6 259.9 269.3
Current account balance, USDbn -104.2 -59.4 -23.5 -9.8 -26.4 -33.6 -37.9
Current account balance, % of GDP -4.2 -3.3 -1.3 -0.5 -1.3 -1.6 -1.7
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 363.6 356.5 365.0 374.0 385.2 396.7 404.7
Import cover, months 13.7 17.6 21.6 20.3 18.6 18.3 18.0
Total external debt stock, USDbn 556.9 543.4 543.3 499.3 472.0 452.2 436.0
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 22.7 30.2 30.3 24.3 22.8 21.6 19.9
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 2,346.3 2,527.0 2,614.1 2,732.7 2,912.1 3,142.9 3,304.6
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d 146.8 459.2 599.8 694.0 837.6 1,023.2 1,149.9
Dry natural gas production, bcm 20.4 20.4 20.6 24.0 25.0 25.8 26.4
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 41.6 43.7 41.5 42.2 43.1 44.5 45.6