Macroeconomic Forecasts - Brazil - FEB 2018


Macroeconomic Forecasts (Brazil 2013-2019)
Indicator 2013 2014 2015 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f=BMI estimate/forecast; Source: National Sources, BMI
Population, mn 202.41 204.21 205.96 207.65 209.29 210.87 212.39
Nominal GDP, USDbn 2,470.3 2,454.9 1,801.3 1,797.0 2,065.5 2,087.3 2,140.7
GDP per capita, USD 12,204 12,021 8,745 8,653 9,869 9,898 10,078
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 3.0 0.5 -3.8 -3.6 0.4 1.7 1.9
Industrial production, % y-o-y, ave 2.1 -2.9 -8.2 -6.5 2.5 2.8 3.0
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 6.2 6.3 9.0 8.8 3.4 3.5 4.2
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 5.9 6.4 10.7 6.3 2.8 3.9 4.5
Central bank policy rate, % eop 10.00 11.75 14.25 13.75 7.00 6.75 7.75
Exchange rate BRL/USD, ave 2.16 2.35 3.33 3.49 3.18 3.30 3.45
Exchange rate BRL/USD, eop 2.36 2.66 3.96 3.26 3.20 3.41 3.48
Budget balance, BRLbn -157.5 -343.9 -613.0 -562.8 -522.4 -465.9 -447.9
Budget balance, % of GDP -3.0 -6.0 -10.2 -9.0 -8.0 -6.8 -6.1
Goods and services exports, USDbn 279.6 264.1 223.9 217.8 252.6 260.1 270.4
Goods and services imports, USDbn 325.6 318.8 243.1 203.2 220.7 240.7 251.6
Current account balance, USDbn -74.8 -104.2 -59.4 -23.5 -11.8 -30.9 -37.6
Current account balance, % of GDP -3.0 -4.2 -3.3 -1.3 -0.6 -1.5 -1.8
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 358.8 363.6 356.5 365.0 379.6 390.9 402.7
Import cover, months 14.0 14.5 16.5 18.8 19.6 18.9 18.6
Total external debt stock, USDbn 483.8 556.9 543.4 543.3 498.6 473.0 454.9
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 19.6 22.7 30.2 30.2 24.1 22.7 21.2
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 2,114.1 2,346.3 2,527.0 2,614.1 2,772.4 2,923.1 3,059.7
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d 19.3 147.9 462.2 604.9 737.3 852.3 943.9
Dry natural gas production, bcm 21.4 22.7 23.1 23.9 25.3 26.4 27.3
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 39.2 41.6 43.7 41.5 42.2 43.1 44.5