Macroeconomic Forecasts - Bolivia - MAY 2017


Macroeconomic Forecasts

Macroeconomic Forecasts (Bolivia 2013-2019)
Indicator 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast; Sources: BCB, BMI
Population, mn 10.4 10.6 10.7 10.9 11.1 11.2 11.4
Nominal GDP, USDbn 30.6 33.0 33.0 34.9 36.8 38.2 39.2
GDP per capita, USD 2,944 3,123 3,079 3,204 3,333 3,406 3,440
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 6.8 5.5 4.8 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.8
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 5.7 5.8 4.1 3.6 5.0 4.0 4.0
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 6.4 5.3 3.0 4.0 5.0 4.0 4.0
Exchange rate BOB/USD, ave 6.92 6.91 6.90 6.91 6.95 7.20 7.50
Exchange rate BOB/USD, eop 6.91 6.91 6.90 6.93 7.00 7.20 7.50
Budget balance, BOBbn 1.4 -7.7 -15.7 -15.5 -11.7 -14.5 -14.0
Budget balance, % of GDP 0.6 -3.4 -6.9 -6.4 -4.6 -5.3 -4.8
Goods and services exports, USDbn 12.8 13.5 9.5 7.7 9.3 10.5 11.7
Goods and services imports, USDbn 11.4 12.9 11.4 10.0 11.2 12.5 13.9
Current account balance, USDbn 0.7 0.1 -1.9 -2.2 -1.7 -1.7 -1.9
Current account balance, % of GDP 2.4 0.2 -5.8 -6.3 -4.5 -4.4 -4.8
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 12.8 13.5 11.6 8.5 8.1 8.3 8.6
Import cover, months 15.8 15.4 14.4 12.1 10.2 9.5 8.8
Total external debt stock, USDbn 8.1 8.8 9.8 11.1 11.9 12.4 14.3
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 26.3 26.6 29.8 31.8 32.3 32.4 36.5
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 63.1 66.5 68.7 73.0 76.0 80.5 84.0
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d -8.1 -5.6 -4.3 -1.1 1.0 4.2 6.6
Dry natural gas production, bcm 21.3 21.8 21.5 22.2 23.2 23.9 24.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 5.4 5.4 5.6 6.5 7.0 7.4 7.6