Macroeconomic Forecasts - Argentina - AUG 2017


Macroeconomic Forecasts (Argentina 2013-2019)
Indicator 2013e 2014e 2015e 2016e 2017f 2018f 2019f
f = BMI forecast; Source: Argentine National Statistics Agencies, BMI
Nominal GDP, USDbn 611.4 563.7 631.9 545.2 695.7 861.8 1,032.6
Real GDP growth, % y-o-y 2.4 -2.5 2.6 -2.3 2.9 3.5 3.6
GDP per capita, USD 14,372 13,115 14,555 12,433 15,713 19,283 22,893
Industrial production, % y-o-y, ave 0.0 -1.8 -0.2 -0.3 1.6 5.3 4.5
Population, mn 42.5 43.0 43.4 43.8 44.3 44.7 45.1
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, eop 10.9 12.7 26.9 41.0 20.9 7.7 5.0
Consumer price inflation, % y-o-y, ave 10.6 24.7 26.7 41.2 22.6 13.0 6.5
Central bank policy rate, % eop 21.63 20.38 27.25 24.75 21.50 10.50 8.00
Exchange rate ARS/USD, ave 5.48 8.12 9.26 14.78 14.90 14.00 12.90
Exchange rate ARS/USD, eop 6.52 8.47 12.93 15.88 14.60 13.75 12.50
Budget balance, ARSbn -64.5 -109.7 -225.6 -474.8 -627.6 -596.0 -543.1
Budget balance, % of GDP -1.9 -2.4 -3.9 -5.9 -6.1 -4.9 -4.1
Goods and services exports, USDbn 91.4 83.6 71.5 71.6 76.9 84.5 91.6
Goods and services imports, USDbn 89.0 80.6 75.6 70.2 78.3 86.3 92.9
Current account balance, USDbn -13.0 -8.9 -16.8 -15.0 -16.0 -21.6 -25.0
Current account balance, % of GDP -2.1 -1.6 -2.7 -2.8 -2.3 -2.5 -2.4
Foreign reserves ex gold, USDbn 30.6 31.4 25.6 38.8 45.8 51.2 56.9
Import cover, months 4.1 4.7 4.1 6.6 7.0 7.1 7.3
Total external debt stock, USDbn 136.3 175.1 183.9 251.0 334.8 384.0 420.5
Total external debt stock, % of GDP 22.3 31.1 29.1 46.0 48.1 44.6 40.7
Crude, NGPL & other liquids prod, 000b/d 691.1 701.3 698.3 679.1 670.0 680.7 693.1
Total net oil exports (crude & products), 000b/d -62.5 7.0 13.3 -2.1 -19.5 -21.3 -26.0
Dry natural gas production, bcm 41.7 41.5 42.9 45.6 47.1 48.6 50.5
Dry natural gas consumption, bcm 45.7 45.5 45.0 45.4 46.2 47.2 48.5