Economy / Peru
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Macroeconomic Forecast Peru
September 2008 | Macroeconomic ForecastsSorry, you must be a subscriber to view this article in full. If you are a subscriber please login.
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Peru's current account swung into deficit at the start of the year and widened to a staggering US$2.5bn during the first half of 2008, on the back of a shrinking merchandise trade surplus, which declined to US$2.4bn during the same period, from US$3.8bn a year earlier. We are revising our current account deficit forecast for this year to 1.8% of GDP, from previous projections for a 0.4% shortfall. While we attribute the sharp widening of Peru's current account deficit to a high commodity import bill, we note the recent drop in global commodity prices should offer some relief for the country's trade balance.