Macroeconomic Forecast Mexico

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Despite market expectations, Mexico’s balance of goods trade remained in the black in June, posting a US$602mn surplus. However, Mexico’s positive trade dynamics were primarily due to a sharp 2.1% year-on-year contraction in import growth, with consumer imports falling by a noticeably 6.9% y-o-y. Indeed, this more than compensated for the 0.4% y-o-y contraction in exports, as Mexico’s manufacturing sector begins to show signs of more sluggish growth. As such, despite appearing to be positive on the surface, we believe the most recent trade data supports our view for a slowdown in Mexico starting in H212.