Macroeconomic Forecast VenezuelaSeptember 2010 | Macroeconomic Forecasts
BMI View: Following Venezuela's real GDP contraction of 5.8% y-o-y in Q110, the economy experienced 10.4% q-o-q growth to post -1.9% y-o-y growth in Q210. Although it appears that the worst of the recession could be over, looking at the broader H110 growth figure (-3.8% y-o-y) the economy remains well placed to meet our -3.8% y-o-y real GDP growth forecast for 2010. Indeed, with government consumption and inventory rebuilding providing the greatest contributions to the headline growth figure, with 0.38 percentage points (pp) 0.27 pp respectively, we still view the Venezuelan economy with caution and maintain our belief that weak domestic demand will continue to drive the recession. Domestic demand contributed -1.23pp to headline growth in Q210.
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