Macroeconomic Forecast El Salvador

BMI View: Latest data reinforces our view that remittances to El Salvador are likely to remain distinctly weak for the foreseeable future, rising just 2.2% y-o-y in the 12 months to December. While we expect the growth rate to pick up to 6.1% y-o-y in 2011, this will not be enough to see the value of remittances return to pre-crisis levels, even in nominal terms, as El Salvadorian workers continue to bear the brunt of a weak US labour market.

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