Macroeconomic Forecast Puerto Rico

BMI View: Retail sales in Puerto Rico finished 2009 in better shape than end-2008, up 0.9% year-on-year in December. However, according to recent data from the commonwealth's planning department, year-on-year growth in the measure had been petering out over the last few months of the year. Moreover, with the nominal value of retail sales still below 2007 levels we are sceptical that we are witnessing a significant recovery in consumer spending. Indeed, ongoing deleveraging and still-high unemployment will keep downside pressure on household expenditure in 2010, in our view, leading to a 2.6% real contraction in private consumption.

To read the full article, please choose one of the following options: