Macroeconomic Forecast Colombia

BMI View: Colombia's national unemployment rate finished 2010 at 11.1%, just slightly above our long-held target of 10.0%. After experiencing the seasonal December spike, we expect the rate to tick down throughout 2011 as economic activity continues to pick up, and are forecasting unemployment to come in at 9.5% by end-2011, before dropping again to 9.0% by end-2012. This, in turn, supports our positive outlook for private consumption, which we expect to post real growth of 2.5% and 3.0% respectively in 2011 and 2012.

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