Macroeconomic Forecast Argentina

BMI View: Argentina's official inflation index ticked down slightly for the second consecutive month, falling from 11.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in November to 10.9% y-o-y in December. However, with money supply growth still soaring higher and demand-side pressures remaining acute, we continue to believe that this data massively underestimates the true level of inflation in the economy, and hold to our view that unofficial inflation estimates will reach 18.0% y-o-y by end-2011.

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