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Macroeconomic Forecast Venezuela

October 2010 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI View: While Venezuela's foreign exchange reserves ticked higher to US$28.1bn in September from US$27.7bn in August and US$27.4bn in July, we believe the government's fiscal profligacy combined with persistent capital and financial account deficits will drive reserves down to US$25.0b by end-2010 and US$23.0bn by end-2011. The country's US dollar reserves have been on a broad downward trend since the US$43.1bn peak reached in December 2009, and with oil prices set to remain relatively stable over the medium term (with Brent set to average US$79.3 per barrel (bbl) in 2010 and US$82.4/bbl 2011), there are few upside risks to this outlook.

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