Macroeconomic Forecast Guatemala

BMI View: Guatemala's exports continued to fall, with shipments down 4.4% year-on-year in December. However, with the 2009 export total only 4.8% below 2008 levels, the country's export industry has held up better than many of its regional peers. Imports, meanwhile, also continued to fall, posting a full-year decline of 19.9%. This saw the country's trade deficit narrow by some 31.4%, to US$4.6bn in 2009. However, we expect the deficit to widen again this year, as a return of domestic demand, coupled with subdued demand for Guatemalan exports in the US, sees import growth outstrip that in exports.

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