Macroeconomic Forecast Jamaica

BMI View: The Jamaican economy contracted by 0.8% y-o-y in Q310, bringing real GDP growth in at -1.3% y-o-y for the first nine months of 2010, meaning that our estimate of -1.2% for full-year growth in 2010 should be pretty close to the mark. Given that Jamaica's external environment look set to improve over the coming quarters - highlighted by the upward revision to our US real GDP growth forecasts from 2.0% to 2.8% for 2011 - we believe that the economy is on track to emerge from recession in 2011. Accordingly, we are forecasting real GDP growth

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