Macroeconomic Forecast Trinidad & Tobago

BMI View: We have revised up our end-2010 current account estimate from US$1.7bn (or 6.4% of GDP) to a more substantial US$2.9bn (or 10.8% of GDP), as Q210 data suggests import growth has not picked up as rapidly as we had initially expected. Unfortunately, we do not view this improvement in the current account outlook as a positive for Trinidad & Tobago's overall external accounts, since the more robust current account balance is indicative of a weaker domestic demand story. This in turn implies the economy will find it harder to attract foreign capital inflows (indicated by the Q210 US$794mn capital account outflows), and therefore we remain concerned about the long-term health of the economy's balance of payments.

To read the full article, please choose one of the following options: