Macroeconomic Forecast Colombia

BMI View: Colombia's official unemployment figure dropped to 11.8% in March, according to the country's statistics agency, an improvement from February's 12.6% reading. This fall reinforces our view that unemployment levels will continue improving towards our end-2010 10.0% projection. However, with underemployment measures still weak and consumer credit starting to fall, the drop in the number of people seeking work does not imply a significant rebound in household expenditure levels, in our view, and we therefore hold to our moderate 2.1% real GDP growth forecast for this year.

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