Macroeconomic Forecast Peru

BMI View: Peru's broad money supply rose 19.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in December, marking a continuation of the uptrend in play since the all-time low of just 1.2% y-o-y growth in April 2009. Going forward, we expect ongoing monetary stimulus measures to drive broad money growth to 21.0% in 2010, before dipping to 15.3% in 2011 as economic conditions normalise. Combined with an uptick in economic activity, this will see consumer price inflation rise to 3.8% by end 2010 according to our projections, before levelling off at 3.0% in 2011 and 2.9% in 2012.

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