Macroeconomic Forecast Guatemala

BMI View: Guatemala's monthly economic activity index rose at its fastest pace in six months in January, recording year-on-year growth of 2.2%. In seasonally adjusted terms, too, economic activity is starting to pick up, rising 1.6% y-o-y. While this data chimes with our view that the worst of the economic downturn is over in the Central American country, we caution that economic recovery is set to be weak, and are forecast real GDP growth of just 0.5% in 2010, rising to 2.0% in 2011.

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