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Economy / Ecuador

Macroeconomic Forecast Ecuador

January 2011 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI View: Ecuadorian real GDP growth came in at 3.7% in 2010 according to preliminary estimates from the government statistics institute INEC, exceeding consensus expectations and our own forecast of 2.2%. Given that a large part of this growth was driven by a government-stimulated expansion in private credit, we believe that it will be unsustainable over the medium term as such momentum dissipates. As a result, we believe the economy remains on track to hit our projections for more moderate growth of 2.8% and 2.9% in 2011 and 2012 respectively.

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