Macroeconomic Forecast Guatemala

BMI View: Guatemala's exports continued to fall in October, with the US$410.9mn figure representing a 7.6% year-on-year (y-o-y) decline. However, this represents a considerable slowing of the rate of contraction, which averaged 14.3% y-o-y over the previous three months, suggesting that an export recovery is beginning amid rising commodity prices. Imports followed a similar pattern, with the October figure of -16.3% y-o-y marking a significant improvement on the -34.7% y-o-y recorded in September. Nonetheless, with the decline in imports outpacing that in exports, we expect Guatemala's trade deficit to narrow to US$4.4bn in 2009, down from US$6.7bn in 2009, and to decline further in 2010 to US$4.3bn.

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