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Economy / Ecuador

Macroeconomic Forecast Ecuador

July 2010 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI View: Ecuador's trade deficit widened to US$-0.25bn in May from US$-0.06bn in April, a move that was driven primarily by a US$0.27bn decline in the value of oil exports. We maintain our view that the country will suffer a current account deficit for a second consecutive year in 2010, at 0.11% of GDP. However, should trade continue to deteriorate over the coming months, we may be encouraged to make a downward revision to this forecast. Given Ecuador's dire financial and capital account picture, a weaker current account is bad news for the stability of the dollarised economy.

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