Macroeconomic Forecast Guyana

BMI View: Recently released data by Guyana's statistics agency shows consumer price inflation (CPI) growth of just 1.9% y-o-y in June 2009, a 0.1 percentage point uptick from the previous month's reading. However, the robust growth in month-on-month readings since April suggests to us that imported inflationary pressures resulting from rising global commodity prices had already begun to take hold in H109, a trend which we estimate to have continued throughout H209. As a result, we hold to our end-2009 CPI estimate of 5.5%, and expect H110 to continue experiencing inflationary pressures as long as commodity prices remain in their uptrend.

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