Macroeconomic Forecast Ecuador

BMI View: Barring a complete collapse of exports in December, Ecuador's year-to-date trade deficit will come under the US$1bn mark in 2009, at around US$480mn according to our recently revised estimates. This is a considerable improvement from our original US$1.2bn deficit projection, set at the start of 2009, and is thanks largely to the government's ability to rein in import levels, rather than a better export outlook (indeed, exports look likely to come in slightly below our initial US$13.4bn projection). Nevertheless, without a rapid uptick in oil prices in 2010, we anticipate Ecuador's trade balance to remain under pressure, and are currently forecasting a US$1.1bn deficit by end-2010.

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