Macroeconomic Forecast Trinidad & Tobago

BMI View: Foreign reserves held by T&T's monetary authorities rose to an impressive US$9.1bn in 2010, from US$8.7bn the previous year, equating to a solid 15 months of import cover, according to our estimates. However, while high energy prices should help the economy post a relatively healthy trade surplus in 2011, we do not expect it to be anywhere near the record US$5bn-plus levels reached between 2006 and 2009 (we are pencilling in a US$2.8bn surplus in 2011, with upside risks), and combined with a relatively weak investment outlook we project reserve levels to remain around current levels, at US$9.0bn come end-2011.

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