Macroeconomic Forecast Honduras

BMI View: Honduran exports dropped in July, dragging down the year-to-date growth in total exports to just 14.4% y-o-y, from 18.2% the previous month. Imports also slowed, but not by enough to slow the widening of the year-to-date trade deficit, which reached US$2.4bn over the same period. While these trade dynamics are broadly in line with our US$3.8bn full-year trade deficit projection for 2010, which we expect to widen to US$4.0bn, lower import and export growth paints a pretty bleak picture for headline GDP growth, which we expect to reach just 2.3% in real terms this year.

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