Macroeconomic Forecast Costa Rica

BMI View: January trade data reinforce our view that import growth will outstrip the rise in exports by some margin in 2011 as the domestic economy continues to recover. Inbound shipments rose by 12.6% y-o-y, compared with a 5.4% y-o-y contraction in exports, and with little indication that a trend reversal is on the cards anytime soon, we forecast the trade deficit to widen to US$5.4bn (equivalent to 11.9% of GDP) in 2011 from US$4.3bn (11.1% of GDP) in 2010.

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