Macroeconomic Forecast Jamaica

Jamaica's real GDP growth came in at -2.1% y-o-y for Q409, bringing full-year growth to -3.0% for 2009. With base effects from 2009, and the US$1.27bn IMF Stand-By agreement allowing for some fiscal maneuverability, we believe that the economy will emerge from recession in 2010 and that real GDP growth is on track to meet our forecast of 1.0% this year, despite the weaker external demand picture. That said, we stress that the recent uptick in political risk throughout the country poses a distinct risk to our forecasts.

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