Activity Rising

Honduras's monthly economic activity index continues to climb, posting growth of 4.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) in seasonally adjusted terms in April, up from 3.8% in March. While base effects are undoubtedly coming into play, the print nonetheless marks a strong signal that the country's economic recovery is beginning to pick up pace. However, with fixed investment likely to suffer from Honduras's ongoing diplomatic exclusion and private consumption weighed down by still-low remittance levels, we are holding to our forecast for modest 2010 real GDP growth of 2.3%.

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