Balance Of Payments Dynamics Remains Precarious

BMI View: We expect robust demand for goods imports and slowing oil exports to result in a US$262mn trade shortfall in 2010 (at 0.11% of GDP) that will drag Ecuador's current account into deficit for a second consecutive year. Given the country's dire financial and capital account situation, we stress that the risks of a broader balance of payments crisis emerging over the next 18 months remains pronounced.

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