Macroeconomic Forecast Argentina

The strong bounce in economic activity in Argentina has seen year-to-date import growth soar to 43.0% year-on-year (y-o-y) in April, reaching US$15.17bn. Nevertheless, stronger external demand has also seen export levels rise, albeit at a slower pace, with year-to-date exports rising 13.4% y-o-y to US$19.23in April. Though firmly in surplus, the sharp increase in import growth has resulted in a 35.9% y-o-y contraction in the trade balance during this period to a surplus of US$4.06bn. We have concomitantly revised our 2010 trade balance forecast from US$20.00bn to US$13.00bn.

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