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Macroeconomic Forecast Venezuela

February 2010 | Macroeconomic Forecasts

BMI View: The devaluation of the bolivar will bring significant relief to Venezuela's fiscal accounts, as petrodollars now will be converted at a significantly weaker exchange rate (VEF4.3000/US$ as opposed to VEF2.1500/US$). This will diminish the need for the government and state-oil firm PdVSA to issue yet more bonds in 2010. In view of the devaluation-effect we have revised our fiscal forecast for this year, and now envisage a 2.2% of GDP deficit, which will be a significant improvement on the (estimated) 6.6% shortfall in 2009.

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