Macroeconomic Forecast Trinidad and Tobago

Headline consumer price inflation in Trinidad & Tobago spike in January, rising 1.89% month-on-month (m-o-m), following three consecutive months of negative m-o-m price growth. The spike occurred on the back of a strong increase in food, but in particular transportation costs, which jumped by 10.1% m-o-m in January. This takes the year-on-year headline consumer price inflation rate up to 3.65%, from 1.34% previously. We caution that headline inflation could climb to 5.0% by year-end, particularly as room for fuel subsidies is increasingly restricted by the deteriorating fiscal situation.

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