No Strategy On Organised Crime

Guatemalan President Álvaro Colom is coming under criticism for his failure to have a clear strategy in addressing the issue of drug trafficking in the country. A recent UN report estimated that output from organised crime equated to around 10% of Guatemala's economic output in 2008, yet by Colom's own admission he is unwilling to risk an uptick in violence which would result from a military confrontation with drug cartels operating inside the country. While this means that Guatemala is yet to experience a Mexican-style spike in drug-related killings, at some point domestic and international pressure is likely to force Colom to take a stronger stand on this issue, highlighted by the country's low 44.2 score on our long-term political risk rating.

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